On Sunday, the final round of the Hero Indian Open will be played at DLF Golf & Country Club. Eugenio Chacarra heads into it with a four-shot lead over his nearest chasers, while the analysts’ pre-tournament favourite sits second on the leaderboard. The key question of the day: whether the leader is still worth backing at the current price and where to look for “value” among those ready to challenge him.
Key talking points for Sunday
Chacarra, the defending champion, goes into the final round as a clear odds-on favourite at 8/15. The Spaniard is defending the title he won exactly a year ago, when he likewise controlled the field from the opening rounds. Key putts on the 15th and 16th holes on Saturday allowed him to offset a couple of mistakes and maintain a comfortable gap.
Why Chacarra looks rock-solid as the favourite
The case for the Spaniard is compelling. Across 11 rounds at DLF he has built the best course record among the current field, and the tournament has not attracted the strongest field. Both of his playing partners in the final group have yet to taste victory at this level. Chacarra remains, perhaps, the most gifted player in the field, and he holds all the aces right now.
Why the analysts are still looking to oppose the favourite
However, the tone changes once you look a little deeper. DLF Golf & Country Club is notoriously tricky, and one bad back nine can wipe out any lead in just a few holes. Even Akshay Bhatia’s world-class talent hasn’t spared him from blow-ups on that side twice already this week. The context adds further doubts too: Chacarra only recently returned after a break to focus on his mental health and looked unconvincing last week in China.
Golf’s growing popularity is fuelling debate about the favourite
Active debate around the tournament favourites is also driven by the fact that the number of golf fans in India is gradually growing. Of course, cricket remains the country’s most popular sport. This is also reflected in download statistics for best betting apps in Andhra Pradesh. However, golf is also gradually gaining followers who take an active interest in the sport. And this is already evident from the increased discussions on social media and other online communities.
Stats that raise further doubts
The numbers provide food for thought. Players with a four-shot lead heading into the final round have historically won about 75% of the time, while the current price implies only around 65%, which, on paper, leaves room for a bet. But DLF’s stats offer a warning: of eight players leading or tied for the lead before Sunday, only one broke 70 in the final round. The collapses have been striking:
- rounds of 73, 75, 77 and even 78 from top players;
- any over-par score can open the door for the chasers.
Fitzpatrick as the already-backed chaser
Alex Fitzpatrick, tipped at 33/1 on Monday, is now into 6/1. The Englishman is playing excellent golf, is piling up birdies with enviable regularity, and with a fast start he is quite capable of taking the fight to the leader. Still, going back in at such a short price is less appealing: to pose a real threat to Chacarra, Fitzpatrick needs to come out flying from the opening holes.
MJ Daffue as a “value” alternative
South African MJ Daffue offers a different kind of appeal. Double-digit odds in the win-only market, two recent titles at lower levels and, most importantly, PGA Tour experience, having earned his card back in the day. Recent seasons have been inconsistent, and the blow-up risk remains, but DLF sets up well for him. Daffue ranks second in the tournament in par-5 scoring, has the power for eagle chances, and with the tees expected to be moved up on the 9th, his attacking options expand. With a bet already on Fitzpatrick, this is a logical attempt to cover the leader via the final group, where the other players are priced at 12/1 and 33/1.
The chasing pack
Freddie Schott deserves respect for his “raw” power and ability to hole long putts, but after a disappointing performance a week earlier this is more of a secondary option. Casey Jarvis, by contrast, is in brilliant form: in his last three tournaments only one player has beaten him. The young South African stands out as a speculative long-shot flyer, although he will need some help from the favourite.
Andy Sullivan at 25/1 combines a track record of comebacks with signs of form building momentum
In 2015, Sullivan won the South African Open by coming back from seven shots behind, and then won the Joburg Open starting Sunday three shots back. Now the Englishman has improved round by round and remains the only player in the field to have played the back nine under par every day. On the “devilishly difficult” second half at DLF, that is a strong argument. Among the leading group, few can gain strokes on the greens as effectively. To land it he will need both his own best and some vulnerability from the leader, but at the current price the attempt is justified.
Why threeballs without the “double”
The most attractive options among the threeballs look to be Triston Lawrence and Kota Kaneko. Nevertheless, a “3/1 double” on such a high-variance venue invites scepticism: DLF’s unpredictability is simply too great. In theory, you could cycle through big-priced outsiders in the hope of a couple of hits, but the bet shifts toward the top of the leaderboard and toward the expectation that the leader will still leave the door ajar for the chasers.
